Thermal coal energy transition outlook 2024

Beyond our base case, we have explored alternative decarbonisation scenarios and their implications on the global thermal coal markets. The Pledge scenario, whereby the world follows a 2-degree warming pathway under our Pledge scenario and the Net zero scenario where the world follows a 1.5-degree warming pathway by 2050. The scenarios, published by Wood Mackenzie’s Energy Transition team, identify what actions must be taken to reduce emissions and achieve the targets. The scenarios requires an immediate, sharp decline in thermal coal consumption with enormous implications for trade and prices.