Insight
US West ports' permit denial delays PRB and increases prices
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Report summary
On 18 August 2014, Oregon Department of State Lands (DSL) rejected an important permit for Ambre Energy's Port of Morrow export facility. This permit failure increases the possibility that all port construction will ultimately be rejected along the US West Coast. We have undertaken analysis of the impact on thermal coal seaborne markets of failure to construct these ports.
Table of contents
- Executive Summary
- Recent events
- If US West Coast ports are not built, the market will consume both more lignite and more high rank coal
- Absent US West Coast ports, demand for US PRB coal will be delayed but not eliminated
- Without US West Coast access to PRB coal, prices for most thermal coals will rise in the next decade
- Winners and losers
- Notes about assumptions and variables
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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Coal ports in the USChange in seaborne thermal coal demand by rank (Mt)Change in seaborne thermal coal demand by country (Mt)
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Change in seaborne high rank thermal coal demand by country (Mt)Change in total seaborne low rank thermal coal demand by country and rank (Mt)Change in FOB price of key marker prices (US 2014$/t)Change in key delivered prices (US 2014$/t)FOB price forecast for PRB and Newcastle (spot) coals by case, (US 2014$/t)
What's included
This report contains:
