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Why coking coal prices peak at about US$300/t in a supply shock

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Report summary

Over the past decade there have been four major supply disruptions to seaborne coking coal mostly due to floods in Queensland. In each case the price of low volatile hard coking coal rose to just over US$300/t FOB before retreating. We examined this pivotal price point from the perspective of steel production costs. On average margins at mills in Asia and EMEARC turn negative at seaborne coal prices over US$300/t.

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    Why coking coal prices peak at about US$300 in a supply shock

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  • Steel margins by region (US$/t)
  • Steel margins by country (US$/t)

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