Middle East conflict: impact on hydrogen derivatives

All hydrogen derivatives traffic via the Strait of Hormuz has stopped. Following the closure, major producers including QAFCO in Qatar declared force majeure on ammonia and urea shipments. The Strait carried 45% of global methanol exports, 38% of urea trade, and 20% of ammonia trade last year, and the conflict is already disrupting global fertiliser and chemical feedstock markets. Markets have reacted sharply. Northwest Europe gas prices surged 50%, pushing ammonia production costs above US$700/t. Asian methanol prices have climbed to multi-year highs as buyers compete for limited supply. India faces a 97% methanol supply deficit, whilst China's standalone MTO facilities risk shutdowns. The spike reflects tight market conditions and insufficient alternative supply capacity. In this Insight we analyse the global market impact of these unprecedented developments on nitrogen fertilisers and methanol.