You may not have noticed, but the Chinese NOCs have carved out a 9-bcm (870-mmcfd) shale gas business without any help from the world's top unconventional companies. But despite this, the NOCs are under considerable pressure to more than triple that to 30 bcm (2.9 bcfd) in just three years. Can they do it? Its important not only due to the impact the new supply will have on China's domestic gas market, but also how that affects China's gas demand on the global market. If the target can't be reached – and we feel it won't – what will fill the gap?