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Canadian wildfires weaken natural gas demand but mask strengthening market fundamentals


Canadian wildfires weaken natural gas demand but mask strengthening market fundamentals

Report summary

We estimate 1.1 million b/d crude oil production has been shut-in so far, taking away 1 bcfd of gas demand along with it for a few days in May.  However, Wood Mackenzie estimates that even with the demand destruction from the wildfires in May, market fundamentals have already strengthened considerably from a year ago. Accounting for these reductions in oil sand sector, gas demand for May looks to be on par with last year's level, and WCSB gas demand for the rest of the injection season is higher year-over-year.  With lower production by the end of the year and continued ramp-up of new oil sands projects, Canadian exports could fall by the end of the year, supporting the anticipated Henry Hub price recovery in 2017.

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  • Canadian wildfires weaken natural gas demand but mask strengthening market fundamentals PDF - 285.10 KB 4 Pages, 2 Tables, 4 Figures

Description

This Gas Markets Insight report highlights the key issues surrounding this topic, and draws out the implications for those involved.

For participants, suppliers and advisors who want to look at the trends, risks and issues surrounding this topic, this report gives you an expert point of view to help inform your decision making.

We provide detailed supply, demand and price forecasts based on our integrated upstream, power, coal and LNG research. Our regional gas experts are based in the markets they analyse, providing comprehensive analyses of regional and global gas markets.

If you want to understand complex gas market dynamics and plan for the future, Wood Mackenzie is the premier resource to help you gain a clear, competitive advantage.

  • Not all oil sands projects are created equal
  • Weather, power offer incremental support for gas demand
  • WCSB storage nears full by August but exports will fall by year-end

In this report there are 6 tables or charts, including:

  • Not all oil sands projects are created equal
    • Impacted oil sands projects
    • Not impacted new projects since 2015
  • Weather, power offer incremental support for gas demand
  • WCSB storage nears full by August but exports will fall by year-end
    • WCSB storage forecast
    • Net Canadian exports to the US
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