Insight

Canadian wildfires weaken natural gas demand but mask strengthening market fundamentals

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Report summary

We estimate 1.1 million b/d crude oil production has been shut-in so far, taking away 1 bcfd of gas demand along with it for a few days in May.  However, Wood Mackenzie estimates that even with the demand destruction from the wildfires in May, market fundamentals have already strengthened considerably from a year ago. Accounting for these reductions in oil sand sector, gas demand for May looks to be on par with last year's level, and WCSB gas demand for the rest of the injection season is higher year-over-year.  With lower production by the end of the year and continued ramp-up of new oil sands projects, Canadian exports could fall by the end of the year, supporting the anticipated Henry Hub price recovery in 2017.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Canadian wildfires weaken natural gas demand but mask strengthening market fundamentals

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Table of contents

  • Not all oil sands projects are created equal
  • Weather, power offer incremental support for gas demand
  • WCSB storage nears full by August but exports will fall by year-end

Tables and charts

This report includes 4 images and tables including:

Tables

  • Impacted oil sands projects
  • Not impacted new projects since 2015

Images

  • WCSB storage forecast
  • Net Canadian exports to the US

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