Insight
Canadian wildfires weaken natural gas demand but mask strengthening market fundamentals
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
We estimate 1.1 million b/d crude oil production has been shut-in so far, taking away 1 bcfd of gas demand along with it for a few days in May. However, Wood Mackenzie estimates that even with the demand destruction from the wildfires in May, market fundamentals have already strengthened considerably from a year ago. Accounting for these reductions in oil sand sector, gas demand for May looks to be on par with last year's level, and WCSB gas demand for the rest of the injection season is higher year-over-year. With lower production by the end of the year and continued ramp-up of new oil sands projects, Canadian exports could fall by the end of the year, supporting the anticipated Henry Hub price recovery in 2017.
Table of contents
- Not all oil sands projects are created equal
- Weather, power offer incremental support for gas demand
- WCSB storage nears full by August but exports will fall by year-end
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
-
Impacted oil sands projectsNot impacted new projects since 2015WCSB storage forecastNet Canadian exports to the US
What's included
This report contains:
Other reports you may be interested in
Insight
A Structural Deficit Drives Colombia's Pivot: From Onshore Producer to Coastal Importer
Is Colombia’s natural gas at a turning point? Rising demand, falling domestic output, and growing offshore expectations
$950
Insight
New Zealand gas shortage sparks policy U-turn and LNG import plans
New Zealand faces gas shortage due to declining production. Government lifted offshore exploration ban and initiated LNG import process.
$950
Insight
Permian gas challenges turn to opportunities
Near-term headwinds give way to improving fundamentals that quickly boost Permian economics
$1,350
