Insight
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9 Pages

Changes in LNG seasonality: the growing impact of weather


Changes in LNG seasonality: the growing impact of weather

Report summary

The LNG supply profile is changing. The gas liquefaction process is sensitive to temperature and the greater geographic spread of new LNG projects means weather will increasingly drive the seasonality of LNG supply. Impacts will vary but most striking is growing risk in Asia-Pacific, particularly in the winter. However, greater risk brings some opportunities as well.


What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Changes in LNG seasonality: the growing impact of weather PDF - 732.99 KB 9 Pages, 2 Tables, 7 Figures
  • Appendix Changes in LNG seasonality.doc.pdf PDF - 167.97 KB

Description

This Gas Markets Insight report highlights the key issues surrounding this topic, and draws out the implications for those involved.

For participants, suppliers and advisors who want to look at the trends, risks and issues surrounding this topic, this report gives you an expert point of view to help inform your decision making.

We provide detailed supply, demand and price forecasts based on our integrated upstream, power, coal and LNG research. Our regional gas experts are based in the markets they analyse, providing comprehensive analyses of regional and global gas markets.

If you want to understand complex gas market dynamics and plan for the future, Wood Mackenzie is the premier resource to help you gain a clear, competitive advantage.

  • Executive summary
  • Background: technology and geography
    • Changes in the global seasonal supply shape
  • Impacts of seasonality in the Atlantic and Pacific will vary
    • While in the Pacific it will expose the market to greater risk...
    • ...making the market more susceptible to shocks
    • Winter supply risks create opportunities for Canada, Russia and other suppliers
    • Fundamentals point to a summer surplus deepening counter seasonal market opportunities
  • Conclusions

In this report there are 9 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
  • Background: technology and geography
    • Table 1: Combined impact of a 1 °C change in ambient temperature on LNG output
    • Map 1: Average annual temperature variation (ºC) and LNG plant location
    • Changes in LNG seasonality: the growing impact of weather: Image 2
    • Chart 2: Seasonal LNG supply shape of traditional LNG projects
    • Chart 3: Seasonal LNG supply shape with new projects
  • Impacts of seasonality in the Atlantic and Pacific will vary
    • Map 2: Seasonal LNG flows
    • Changes in LNG seasonality: the growing impact of weather: Table 2
    • Chart 5: Share of Asia LNG from local suppliers
    • Chart 6: Asia-Pacific LNG demand by season
  • Conclusions
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