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China gas markets long-term outlook H1 2015

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16 July 2015

China gas markets long-term outlook H1 2015

Report summary

Demand growth in China's gas market – averaging c. 15% for the past 5 years – slumped to under 3% year-on-year in the first 6 months of 2015, driving uncertainty around the outlook for Asia Pacific gas prices, the ramp up of contracted LNG volumes, and ultimately the scale of China's gas market.

Table of contents

    • Demand weakness expected to persist for the next 2-3 years
    • LNG demand under pressure, but Pacific basin pricing spurs demand response
    • Lower shale outlook, but additional incentives on the horizon
    • City Gate prices may be revised again amid weak demand
    • Key data tables
  • Economic outlook
    • Gas sector policy & regulation
    • Regulatory structure
    • Gas demand overview
    • Industrial sector (including feedstock)
    • Residential & commercial sector (including space heating)
    • Transport sector
    • Power sector
    • Appendix - Provincial Demand Data
    • Summary
    • Domestic gas resources
      • Conventional gas resources
      • Unconventional gas resources
    • Appendix: Domestic supply
    • Supply cost stack
    • Weighted average cost of gas supply
    • Gas Imports - Pipeline
      • Central Asia Imports
        • Turkmenistan
        • Uzbekistan
        • Kazakhstan
      • Myanmar Imports
      • Russia Imports
        • Russia East
        • Russia West
        • Assumed import pipeline contract pricing
        • Gas Imports - LNG
          • LNG import contracts
    • Domestic gas infrastructure
      • Existing
      • Under development & proposed
      • Gas Import infrastructure - LNG
      • CNOOC
      • PetroChina
      • Sinopec
      • Private entrants
    • Contracted Supply
    • LNG Supply-Demand Balance
    • Introduction
    • China's existing gas pricing structure
      • Gas pricing structure
      • Power pricing
      • Non-power pricing
        • Industry & Commercial
        • Residential
        • Transport
        • Appendix - Provincial End User Prices
  • Risks and uncertainties

Tables and charts

This report includes 45 images and tables including:

  • Economic Indicators
  • China Supply & Demand Balance
  • China gas demand by province
  • China gas market balance
  • China power market balance
  • Summary of 12th Five Year Plan energy targets
  • Key policy events in 2014-2015
  • China energy policy making and regulatory structure
  • Total China gas demand by sector
  • China demand by province
  • Industrial gas demand by province
  • Fertilisers and Chemicals gas demand by province
  • Industrial energy demand by fuel type
  • Residential/commercial gas demand by province
  • Demand: Image 7
  • Demand: Image 8
  • Demand: Image 9
  • Demand: Image 10
  • Roadway and Waterway gas demand
  • Inland riverway and domestic coastal gas demand
  • China supply cost by project (US$/mmbtu 2015 terms)
  • China weighted average cost of gas (2015 terms)
  • Costs: Table 1
  • LNG Demand (Contracted vs Uncontracted)
  • Conventional domestic gas resources by region/basin
  • China supply outlook by region/basin
  • Supply: Image 3
  • Supply: Image 4
  • Supply: Image 5
  • Key domestic gas infrastructure - existing
  • Key regions/basin gas infrastructure* - under development and proposed
  • China regasification capacity by status
  • China regasification capacity by company
  • CNOOC LNG capacity by terminal
  • PetroChina LNG capacity by terminal
  • Sinopec LNG capacity by terminal
  • Other companies LNG capacity by terminal
  • China LNG terminal map
  • Trans-Asia gas pipeline route map
  • Russian export pipeline routes map
  • Assumed Turkmenistan contract price into Beijing (2015 terms)
  • End-user prices vs. competing fuel (Q1 2015)
  • China contracted LNG by Project & Buyer (SPA, HOAs and MOUs)
  • Trade: Image 4
  • Trade: Image 5

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Appendix - China gas markets long-term outlook H1 2015.pdf

    PDF 3.42 MB

  • Document

    China Gas Data H1 2015.xls

    XLS 1.96 MB

  • Document

    China gas markets long-term outlook H1 2015

    PDF 2.46 MB

  • Document

    China gas markets long-term outlook H1 2015

    ZIP 2.86 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 103.97 KB

  • Document

    Economic outlook

    PDF 58.28 KB

  • Document

    Policy and regulation

    PDF 217.89 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 148.40 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 409.81 KB

  • Document

    Costs

    PDF 93.05 KB

  • Document

    Trade

    PDF 1.44 MB

  • Document

    Infrastructure

    PDF 406.63 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 93.63 KB

  • Document

    Prices

    PDF 96.12 KB

  • Document

    Risks and uncertainties

    PDF 80.98 KB

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