Commodity market report
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40 Pages

China gas markets long-term outlook H1 2015


China gas markets long-term outlook H1 2015

Report summary

Demand growth in China's gas market – averaging c. 15% for the past 5 years – slumped to under 3% year-on-year in the first 6 months of 2015, driving uncertainty around the outlook for Asia Pacific gas prices, the ramp up of contracted LNG volumes, and ultimately the scale of China's gas market.

What's included?

This report includes 3 file(s)

  • China gas markets long-term outlook H1 2015 PDF - 2.46 MB 40 Pages, 10 Tables, 35 Figures
  • Appendix - China gas markets long-term outlook H1 2015.pdf PDF - 3.42 MB
  • China Gas Data H1 2015.xls XLS - 1.96 MB

Description

Volatility in oil markets and the growth of unconventional gas supply have created a high degree of uncertainty about future gas demand and the direction of gas prices.

This Gas Markets Long Term Outlook report forecasts future pricing, based on deep analysis of gas supply and demand fundamentals. Additionally, it addresses complex questions on gas flows, identifies future opportunities and informs fuel purchasing strategies.

Participants and investors can use this long term outlook report to understand gas markets and assess the impact of global gas dynamics and key market drivers.

Wood Mackenzie provides detailed supply, demand and price forecasts based on our integrated upstream, power, coal and LNG research. Our regional gas experts are based in the markets they analyse, providing comprehensive analyses of regional and global gas markets.

If you want to understand complex gas market dynamics and plan for the future, Wood Mackenzie is the premier resource to help you gain a clear, competitive advantage.

  • Executive summary
    • Demand weakness expected to persist for the next 2-3 years
    • LNG demand under pressure, but Pacific basin pricing spurs demand response
    • Lower shale outlook, but additional incentives on the horizon
    • City Gate prices may be revised again amid weak demand
    • Key data tables
  • Economic outlook
  • Policy and regulation
    • Gas sector policy & regulation
    • Regulatory structure
  • Demand
    • Gas demand overview
    • Industrial sector (including feedstock)
    • Residential & commercial sector (including space heating)
    • Transport sector
    • Power sector
    • Appendix - Provincial Demand Data
  • Supply
    • Summary
    • Domestic gas resources
      • Conventional gas resources
      • Unconventional gas resources
    • Appendix: Domestic supply
  • Costs
    • Supply cost stack
    • Weighted average cost of gas supply
  • Trade
    • Gas Imports - Pipeline
      • Central Asia Imports
        • Turkmenistan
        • Uzbekistan
        • Kazakhstan
      • Myanmar Imports
      • Russia Imports
        • Russia East
        • Russia West
        • Assumed import pipeline contract pricing
        • Gas Imports - LNG
          • LNG import contracts
  • Infrastructure
    • Domestic gas infrastructure
      • Existing
      • Under development & proposed
      • Gas Import infrastructure - LNG
      • CNOOC
      • PetroChina
      • Sinopec
      • Private entrants
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Contracted Supply
    • LNG Supply-Demand Balance
  • Prices
    • Introduction
    • China's existing gas pricing structure
      • Gas pricing structure
      • Power pricing
      • Non-power pricing
        • Industry & Commercial
        • Residential
        • Transport
        • Appendix - Provincial End User Prices
  • Risks and uncertainties

In this report there are 45 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • China gas demand by province
    • China gas market balance
    • China power market balance
  • Economic outlook
    • Economic Indicators
  • Policy and regulation
    • Summary of 12th Five Year Plan energy targets
    • Key policy events in 2014-2015
    • China energy policy making and regulatory structure
  • Demand
    • Total China gas demand by sector
    • China demand by province
    • Industrial gas demand by province
    • Fertilisers and Chemicals gas demand by province
    • Industrial energy demand by fuel type
    • Residential/commercial gas demand by province
    • Demand: Image 7
    • Demand: Image 8
    • Demand: Image 9
    • Demand: Image 10
    • Roadway and Waterway gas demand
    • Inland riverway and domestic coastal gas demand
  • Supply
    • Conventional domestic gas resources by region/basin
    • China supply outlook by region/basin
    • Supply: Image 3
    • Supply: Image 4
    • Supply: Image 5
  • Costs
    • China supply cost by project (US$/mmbtu 2015 terms)
    • China weighted average cost of gas (2015 terms)
    • Costs: Table 1
  • Trade
    • Trans-Asia gas pipeline route map
    • Russian export pipeline routes map
    • Assumed Turkmenistan contract price into Beijing (2015 terms)
    • China contracted LNG by Project & Buyer (SPA, HOAs and MOUs)
    • Trade: Image 4
    • Trade: Image 5
  • Infrastructure
    • Key domestic gas infrastructure - existing
    • Key regions/basin gas infrastructure* - under development and proposed
    • China regasification capacity by status
    • China regasification capacity by company
    • CNOOC LNG capacity by terminal
    • PetroChina LNG capacity by terminal
    • Sinopec LNG capacity by terminal
    • Other companies LNG capacity by terminal
    • China LNG terminal map
  • Supply-demand balances
    • China Supply & Demand Balance
    • LNG Demand (Contracted vs Uncontracted)
  • Prices
    • End-user prices vs. competing fuel (Q1 2015)
  • Risks and uncertainties
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