Coronavirus: impact on Italian gas demand

Italy is the epicentre of active Coronavirus cases and has taken bold action to limit the spread. As the country exits its first full week of lockdown and closure of non-essential services, an indication of the impact to gas demand is emerging. Extending the loss of the previous seven days from pre-coronavirus projections over a three-month period, we estimate 3 bcm of lost Italian gas demand in 2020. Amongst many other factors, the likelihood of a recession adds further downside risk to gas demand.