Does Germany need LNG? Report

Insight 14 February 2019

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Report summary

Despite being Europe's largest gas market, Germany remains an outlier by lacking direct access to the rapidly growing global LNG market. However, momentum to develop an LNG import terminal has gathered pace following shifts in the existing gas supply mix and the recent clarity on Germany's plans for phasing out coal. The offer of political support has been enough to incentivise three LNG import terminal proposals. Two of the three already have heads of agreements in place for capacity bookings and continue to make progress. The possibility of Germany developing more than one terminal has not been ruled out and market interest suggests it is possible. We expect FID on at least one of the proposed projects by the end of 2019.

Executive summary
Introduction
- What has changed?
'Gronin-gone' – Germany's gas supply mix shifts after decades of stability
A bunker bonus – Germany supports LNG for maritime operations
A road-map for coal closure (finally!) – a reinforcement of gas demand, not an amplification
European LNG imports will rise – so too must import capacity
The contenders
Conclusions
Appendix