Global gas markets long-term outlook H1 2019: Base Case Report

Commodity Market Report 21 August 2019

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What’s inside this report?

Read our report for in-depth analysis of global gas markets, including the factors that are likely to have the greatest influence on supply and demand.

Our experts also share their near-term FID forecasts and longer-term global LNG build forecasts.

Why buy this report?

Get answers to all your questions about global gas markets, including:

How will the market balance in the short-term?
What's driving demand growth in Asia Pacific?
What are our forecasts for global gas prices in the medium to long term?

This report comes with charts and data sets, including this one, tracking gas demand in the Pacific region – just one of the regions the report covers in detail – out to 2040. Scroll down for the full table of contents.

A graph tracking the changes in LNG demand in the Pacific region, out to 2040

Report summary

The much-anticipated LNG oversupply has finally materialised. With 38 Mt of new LNG supply this year, there was always going to be too much for the market to absorb. And with Asian LNG demand growth slowing, excess LNG has flooded Northwest Europe and prices have crashed, dragging Asian LNG prices down too. With European hub prices now trading below US$3.5/mmbtu, the European gas market is finely balanced making the risk of US LNG under-utilisation a reality – a risk that will extend to 2020. Post-2020, the market will change quickly. A lack of LNG investment decisions from 2015-18 means there will be limited supply growth over 2021-24. Combined with rising demand in Asia, this will result in lower LNG imports to Europe. And with declining European domestic production, the requirement for Russian pipeline imports will rise towards 200 bcma in 2023/24, supporting higher prices. The price recovery phase will be brief, before a new wave of supply sets off the next cycle from 2024/25.

Other H1 2019 Global Gas Service reports:
Pacific Basin - LNG
- LNG imports
- China accounts for two thirds of Asia's gas demand growth between 2018 and 2040
- Middle East
- LNG exports
Atlantic Basin - LNG
- Europe
- LNG imports
- LNG exports
Americas
- LNG exports
- LNG exports
North America
Europe
Asia
Brent oil price forecast (H1 2019)
- Non-OPEC supply continues to increase in the short term
Coal price assumption
Coal price assumption
- Developing world expansion and carbon emissions limits – two contradictory stressors
- The outlook for coal prices
Carbon price assumption
- European carbon price
- US carbon prices

Tables and charts

This report includes 23 images and tables including:

European prices, Henry Hub and US LNG cash costs
Global price differentials
Global LNG supply-demand (un)balance

Global LNG supply and demand delivered to Japan (2040)
Pacific and Middle East LNG demand by market
Pacific uncontracted demand by market
Pacific LNG contestable demand & competing available supply
Pacific LNG supply and demand
Pacific LNG flows by source
Global LNG availability and Pacific/ME market
Net LNG available to Atlantic
Russia pipe vs LNG imports to Europe
Europe supply-demand gap - contracted volumes
Europe supply-demand gap - uncontracted volumes
Europe import dependency
Europe supply-demand balance
North America LNG imports
South America LNG imports
US Lower 48 exports by destination
Canada LNG exports
Oil price forecast (Brent crude)
Coal price forecast
Carbon (EUA) price forecast

What's included

This report contains:

Global Gas Service - Base Case - H1 2019.xls

XLS 1.22 MB
global_gas_markets_-_macro_assumptions_-_h1_2019.xls

XLS 3.49 MB
global-gas-service_base-case-h1-2019_comparison-to-prev-outlook.xlsx

XLSX 181.71 KB
Global gas markets long-term outlook H1 2019: Base Case

PDF 1.37 MB
Global gas markets long-term outlook H1 2019: Base Case

ZIP 2.09 MB