Future exploration outlook

The Future Exploration Outlook focuses on a near-term outlook until 2030 and the sector’s longer-term prospects to 2050. We expect the exploration sector’s near-term future to remain stable, with demand for oil and gas forecast to peak in 2032. Longer term, we anticipate global gas demand to remain robust, whilst liquids demand is more closely tied to the pace and execution of the energy transition. Proven developed supply, falls far short of our base case demand with an oil supply gap of around 600 bnboe and 400 bnboe of gas. Continued investment in exploration is essential if the industry is to find new advantaged barrels, but exploration alone may only cover as much as 20% of the supply-demand gap. Operators will need to improve oil field recovery for existing onstream assets and find routes to commercialising contingent assets to unlock over 1 trillion boe of untapped potential.