Commodity Market Report
Global gas markets long-term outlook H2 2019: Base Case
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
The much-anticipated LNG oversupply has finally materialised. With 39 Mt of new LNG supply in 2019, there was always going to be too much for the market to absorb. And with Asian LNG demand growth slowing, excess LNG has flooded Northwest Europe and prices have crashed, dragging Asian LNG prices down too. With the prospects for price upside over the next two years extremely limited, the risk of US LNG underutilisation grows. Post-2020, the market will change quickly. A lack of LNG investment decisions from 2015-18 means there will be limited supply growth in early-2020s. European LNG imports will plateau and fall as LNG is diverted to meet the growing Asian LNG demand. This will lead to a brief recovery phase before a new wave of supply sets off the next cycle from 2026/27 driven by record LNG FIDs in 2019/20.
Table of contents
- Other H2 2019 Global Gas Service reports:
-
Pacific Basin - LNG
- LNG imports
- China accounts for two thirds of Asia's gas demand growth between 2018 and 2040
- Middle East
- LNG exports
-
Atlantic Basin - LNG
- Europe
- LNG imports
- LNG exports
-
Americas
- LNG exports
- LNG exports
- North America
- Europe
- Asia
-
Brent oil price forecast (H2 2019)
- Non-OPEC supply continues to increase in the short term
- Coal price assumption
-
Carbon price assumption
- European carbon price
- US carbon prices
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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European prices, Henry Hub and US LNG cash costsGlobal price differentialsGlobal LNG supply-demand (un)balance
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Global LNG supply and demand delivered to Japan (2040)Coal price forecast CFR ARAPacific and Middle East LNG demand by marketAsian LNG demandSouth and Southeast Asia LNG demand growthPacific uncontracted demand by marketPacific LNG contestable demand & competing available supplyPacific LNG supply and demandPacific LNG flows by source
- 13 more item(s)...
What's included
This report contains:
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