Insight
Iran war scenarios: implications for the gas and LNG market (November 2026)
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Report summary
The Iran war remains at the centre of attention as the northern hemisphere heads into winter, with no resolution to the conflict in sight. Around 20% of global LNG supply remains stranded, and risks are mounting that disruptions could persist well into 2027 and beyond. Persian Gulf LNG is increasingly viewed as interruptible supply. Alongside our base case from the Global gas 10-year investment horizon outlook 2026 – which assumes the Strait of Hormuz reopens in early 2027 – we have developed three distinct scenarios exploring differing timelines for the end of the conflict and the normalisation of LNG transit through the strait.
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