Commodity Market Report
Global gas markets long-term supply outlook - Central Asia - H1 2015
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
We forecast that export volumes from Central Asia will grow from 62 bcm in 2014 to 98 bcm by 2020. Exports to China through an expanded Trans-Asia pipeline are the primary driver for growth.
Table of contents
- Executive summary
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Supply
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Turkmenistan
- South Iolotan development provides the basis for a significant production increase
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Kazakhstan
- Output dominated by associated gas production
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Uzbekistan
- Foreign investment required to sustain production
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Turkmenistan
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Demand
- Domestic gasification facilitates gas demand growth in Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, but government policy will cause a marginal decline in Uzbekistan
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Infrastructure
- Pipe
- LNG
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Supply-demand balances
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Export potential
- Excess export capacity due to underutilise pipelines to Russia
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Export potential
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Contracts
- To Russia
- To China
- To Iran
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Trade
- Strategy
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Market access
- Trans-Asia pipeline has opened a new export frontier
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Recent Trends
- China exports consistently exceed those to Russia, exports to Iran have shown instability
- Outlook
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Medium term
- Fall in exports to Russia will be offset by growth to China
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Long term
- Exports to China reach 69 bcm by the late 2020s as flows to Russia dwindle
- Risks and uncertainties
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
- Map - key domestic and export infrastructure
- Indigenous production potential
- Domestic demand by country
- Export capacity
- Contracted exports vs export potential
- Existing Export Pipelines
- Pipelines Under Construction
- Proposed Pipelines
- Available export volumes vs available export capacity
- Export outlook v export potential
- Export supply mix
- Exports to Russia
- 2 more item(s)...
What's included
This report contains:
