Commodity Market Report

Global gas markets long-term supply outlook - Central Asia - H1 2015

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10 July 2015

Global gas markets long-term supply outlook - Central Asia - H1 2015

Report summary

We forecast that export volumes from Central Asia will grow from 62 bcm in 2014 to 98 bcm by 2020. Exports to China through an expanded Trans-Asia pipeline are the primary driver for growth.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
    • Turkmenistan
      • South Iolotan development provides the basis for a significant production increase
    • Kazakhstan
      • Output dominated by associated gas production
    • Uzbekistan
      • Foreign investment required to sustain production
    • Domestic gasification facilitates gas demand growth in Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, but government policy will cause a marginal decline in Uzbekistan
    • Pipe
    • LNG
    • Export potential
      • Excess export capacity due to underutilise pipelines to Russia
    • To Russia
    • To China
    • To Iran
    • Strategy
    • Market access
      • Trans-Asia pipeline has opened a new export frontier
    • Recent Trends
      • China exports consistently exceed those to Russia, exports to Iran have shown instability
    • Outlook
    • Medium term
      • Fall in exports to Russia will be offset by growth to China
    • Long term
      • Exports to China reach 69 bcm by the late 2020s as flows to Russia dwindle
  • Risks and uncertainties

Tables and charts

This report includes 14 images and tables including:

  • Map - key domestic and export infrastructure
  • Indigenous production potential
  • Domestic demand by country
  • Export capacity
  • Contracted exports vs export potential
  • Existing Export Pipelines
  • Pipelines Under Construction
  • Proposed Pipelines
  • Available export volumes vs available export capacity
  • Export outlook v export potential
  • Export supply mix
  • Exports to Russia
  • Exports to China
  • Exports to Iran

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global gas markets long-term supply outlook - Central Asia - H1 2015.xls

    XLS 318.50 KB

  • Document

    Global gas markets long-term supply outlook - Central Asia - H1 2015

    PDF 906.17 KB

  • Document

    Global gas markets long-term supply outlook - Central Asia - H1 2015

    ZIP 968.26 KB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 640.20 KB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 650.14 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 77.80 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 87.17 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 74.87 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 82.73 KB

  • Document

    Infrastructure

    PDF 99.40 KB

  • Document

    Infrastructure

    PDF 111.56 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 71.77 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 81.35 KB

  • Document

    Contracts

    PDF 75.65 KB

  • Document

    Contracts

    PDF 86.04 KB

  • Document

    Trade

    PDF 90.41 KB

  • Document

    Trade

    PDF 101.30 KB

  • Document

    Risks and uncertainties

    PDF 52.61 KB

  • Document

    Risks and uncertainties

    PDF 58.87 KB