Global short-term LNG demand tracker (Q2 2021)

China and Southeast Asia dominate LNG demand growth through to 2022, while JKT sees a one-year ‘bounce’ from a depressed 2020 Northeast Asian growth carries risk: In each of the three largest LNG importing countries (China, Japan, Korea) we expect sizeable growth (or at least a rebound) in 2021 imports. However, each of these carries country-specific risks. In Japan, total power demand continues to decline, putting pressure on gas as the marginal fuel source. Korea's growth is largely through government-enforced coal-to-gas switching and one-time inventory restocking. Only China’s LNG growth is supported by strong fundamental gas demand. But even there, any economic slowdown or resurgence of COVID restrictions could reverse this trend as supply from both domestic production and Russian pipeline imports continue to grow.