Global short-term LNG supply tracker (Q4 2021)

A look at winter 2021/22: Global output reached around 33 Mt in October, as producers pushed hard to capture high prices. We expect global supply to increase +5% over winter compared to the previous two winters – driven by countries including Egypt and the US. However, producers which have faced chronic gas shortages this year will face difficulties to boost seasonal output. What to expect for 2022: Two projects will ramp up through 2022 – Sabine Pass Train 6 and Calcasieu Pass LNG – and will contribute to additional supply in the Atlantic. Upstream performance is the key risk for 2022 with uncertainty on backfill and feedgas levels growing at existing projects in Australia, Malaysia, Trinidad, Nigeria and Angola. There is also significant room to improve plant reliability, as technical outages reached an all-time high in 2021 for the second year in a row.