Is the Indian government's target of 15% gas penetration by 2030 achievable? Report

Insight 01 October 2020

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Report summary

India has set the target to increase the share of natural gas in its primary energy mix from the current 5.6% to 15% by 2030. We estimate this would require gas demand to rise to around 170 bcm by 2030. The government and other stakeholders are taking multiple initiatives to promote gas’ application, including pro gas policies, infrastructure development and market deregulation. Yet, that target seems to be overambitious. In this insight we analyse the potential for gas demand growth across the different sectors, highlighting what would need to happen for the government target to be met.

Executive summary
An overly ambitious government target
Pipeline developments remain key to unlock industrial gas demand
Gas demand in transport will be supported by oil-to-gas switching before losing momentum to electric vehicles
Last-mile connectivity will unlock residential and commercial demand in the long-term
Increasing usage of gas in the power sector will be short-lived, unless restrictions on coal use and/or a carbon price are introduced
Conclusion