Insight
New England markets: the peak day problem
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
The New England gas market features the largest seasonal price swing in North America. Gas pipeline capacity into the area is limited and while it is sufficient to meet the area's demand during the bulk of the year, it often falls short in the winter. Until recently, pipeline expansion seemed the most likely solution to the New England peak day problem, however pipeline expansion has met with heavy opposition in the area and finding a regulatory solution to pay for pipeline has proved challenging. Recent rulings in Massachusetts and New Hampshire blocking electric utilities from socializing pipeline expansion costs to rate payers makes the path forward for Spectra's Access Northeast even more difficult. In this insight we will explore the New England winter market's need for a peak day solution given power retirements compounding the already constrained market, and examine what the winter markets will look like without additional pipeline expansion.
Table of contents
-
Introduction
- With the new Massachusetts Supreme Court ruling, only a small amount of new pipeline build remains
- Power retirements further stress the gas markets
- Canadian imports can rise--but not offset--the peak demand
- LNG and oil to fill the gap left by pipeline build
- Weak global prices keep Algonquin prices in check
- Algonquin (AGT) Price Scenarios
- Conclusion
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
- New England gas infrastructure
- Approximate Demand served by pipe in New England
- New England winter demand potential and pipe constraint
- LNG Regas capabilities in New England and Eastern Canada
- Daily LNG sendout required to balance New England markets, by temperature range
- New England markets: the peak day problem: Image 4
What's included
This report contains:
Other reports you may be interested in
Commodity Market Report
Sending mixed signals: Southeast power and renewables short term outlook March 2019
The month of March has highlighted many of the resiliency issues the North American power grid is grappling with.
$2,000
Commodity Market Report
Shoulder season step up: WECC power markets short-term outlook September 2019
The first half of September saw very low wind generation as the first week’s total wind output was around a 23% capacity factor.
$2,000
Commodity Market Report
NYMEX sensitivity case developed from the Mexico gas, power and renewables Strategic Planning Outlook 2024
Represents the use of the New York Mercantile Exchange futures gas prices and its impact on our long-term outlook on Mexico’s power sector.
$8,000
