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North America gas long-term outlook H2 2019 data: Capital discipline leads to a higher price floor

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02 December 2019

North America gas long-term outlook H2 2019 data: Capital discipline leads to a higher price floor

Report summary

In 2019, record US gas production has increased downward pressure on Henry Hub prices. Our latest long-term outlook sees this production growing more measured in the next decade, and this is met by a slower LNG export build and lower near-term gas power burns, leading to a higher price floor in the early 2020s: around $2.50/mmbtu. Ultimately, the global appetite for North American LNG remains strong, and the call on it increases just as associated gas production plateaus, buffeting prices beyond $3.00/mmbtu by 2030 and $4.00/mmbtu by 2038. Throughout this update, you’ll note five themes: • Producers are responding to pressure to exhibit greater capital discipline. • The dynamic between associated gasand its non-associated gas rivals has once again shifted, creating a tale of two supplies. • LNG will reach the same ultimate export levels by 2040, but it has a slower build. • Gas’s power market share is reduced by the rise of renewables. • We anticipate increased infrastructure delays

Table of contents

  • Capital discipline
  • Tale of two supplies
  • Slower build up of 2 nd wave LNG projects
  • The rise of renewables
  • Infrastructure delays

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What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    NAGS LNG Breakout 2019 H2.xls

    XLS 861.50 KB

  • Document

    NAGS LTO Infrastructure 2019 H2.xls

    XLS 274.50 KB

  • Document

    NAGS LTO New Industrial Capacity 2019 H2.xls

    XLS 659.00 KB

  • Document

    NAGS LTO Price Outlook 2019 H2.xls

    XLS 1.03 MB

  • Document

    NAGS LTO Supply and Demand Balances 2019 H2.xls

    XLS 996.00 KB

  • Document

    NAGS LTO Supply Breakout 2019 H2.xls

    XLS 1.10 MB

  • Document

    North America gas long-term outlook H2 2019 data: Capital discipline leads to a higher price floor

    PDF 4.74 MB

  • Document

    North America gas long-term outlook H2 2019 data: Capital discipline leads to a higher price floor

    ZIP 4.28 MB

  • Document

    NAGS LTO Demand Breakout 2019 H2.xlsx

    XLSX 1.50 MB

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