Commodity Market Report

North America gas long-term outlook H2 2019 highlights: Capital discipline leads to a higher price floor

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28 December 2019

North America gas long-term outlook H2 2019 highlights: Capital discipline leads to a higher price floor

Report summary

Tight oil continues to have a significant impact on natural gas markets as associated gas production continues to take market share away from dry gas producers, particularly in the Haynesville and Northeast region. The trend of tight oil production’s steep growth trajectory in the short-term is continued in our H2 outlook. However, the overall volume has fallen compared to our last update. We still expect tight oil to peak post-2025, at nearly 13 million bbls/d but roughly 500 kbd less compared to H1. The year of highest annual growth is 2022 at over 800 kbd, nearly halved from our H1 outlook. Despite a downward revision to Lower 48 tight oil production, associated gas is higher once again in the outlook, with the exception of the short-term period (2020-2021). We’ve upgraded associated gas production by an average of 2.2 over the forecast period. Similar to tight oil, associated gas production plateaus in the mid-2020s.

Table of contents

Tables and charts

This report includes 5 images and tables including:

  • Associated gas production by play
  • North America gas price forecast
  • New industrial capacity
  • US power generation by source
  • Non-associated gas production by play

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    North America LNG - Imports Exports_H2 2019.xlsx

    XLSX 1.31 MB

  • Document

    north-america-production-demand-prices-h2-2019.xlsx

    XLSX 514.31 KB

  • Document

    North America gas long-term outlook H2 2019 highlights: Capital discipline leads to a higher price floor

    ZIP 2.37 MB

  • Document

    North America gas long-term outlook H2 2019 highlights: Capital discipline leads to a higher price floor

    ZIP 2.37 MB

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