North America gas markets short-term outlook January 2018: no, not a polar vortex Report

Commodity Market Report 24 January 2018

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Report summary

The gas market witnessed a number of new records in the last four weeks: the coldest gas-weighted week this century, the first EIA storage withdrawal that exceeded 300 bcf, and the highest spot prices ever at over $100/mmbtu on the eastern seaboard—all on the back of record US gas production before winter freeze-offs. With the inventory levels near the five-year low set in 2014 and the $0.80 rally since early January, some are comparing this year to the "polar vortex" winter. That year the March contract rose as high as $6.80, more than $2.00 higher than it had been earlier in the winter. What is the likelihood that we're in for a repeat this year? Not very high.

Executive summary
Infrastructure
- Storage
Supply
Demand
- Power
LNG
- Cove: to export, or not to export?
- Sabine Pass: feedgas dips
Regional
- Northeast
  - Basis outlook
  - Pipeline build outlook
- Canada
- Mexico
  - Mexico supply-demand outlook (bcfd)

Tables and charts

This report includes 14 images and tables including:

Short-term price outlook
Henry Hub price outlook
US supply-demand outlook (bcfd)

Key supply metrics and indicators
Lower 48 dry production forecast
Infrastructure: Image 1
US storage inventories (bcf)
Feedgas projections by terminal
Canada supply-demand outlook (bcfd)
Basis outlook
Rover Ohio receipts
Rover Ohio deliveries
Regional: Image 4
Regional: Table 2

What's included

This report contains:

Basis Outlook.xls

XLS 131.00 KB
Demand Detail.xls

XLS 698.00 KB
Industrial Index.xls

XLS 124.00 KB

LNG Detail incl Export.xls

XLS 228.50 KB
NGL Price Outlook.xls

XLS 118.00 KB
Northeast Takeaway Capacity.xls

XLS 539.50 KB
Power Demand Curve.xls

XLS 125.00 KB
Price Outlook.xls

XLS 136.50 KB
Storage Outlook.xls

XLS 156.00 KB
Supply Demand Balances.xls

XLS 315.50 KB
Supply Detail.xlsx

XLSX 214.00 KB
North America gas markets short-term outlook January 2018: no, not a polar vortex

PDF 507.93 KB
North America gas markets short-term outlook January 2018: no, not a polar vortex

ZIP 2.04 MB