Commodity market report
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20 Pages

United Kingdom gas markets long-term outlook H1 2015

United Kingdom gas markets long-term outlook H1 2015

Report summary

Coal to gas switching supported gas demand in 2014 however gas demand still fell by 8% as a result of unusually mild temperatures. As weather return to normal levels in 2015, demand will grow 5.7% year-on-year and recover to normal levels. Demand growth however is not expected to be sustained, as energy efficiency measures increasingly kick in and offset any upside from rising GDP, population growth and increasing disposable income. 

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • United Kingdom gas markets long-term outlook H1 2015 PDF - 959.16 KB 20 Pages, 1 Tables, 18 Figures
  • United Kingdom gas H1 2015.xls XLS - 839.50 KB


Volatility in oil markets and the growth of unconventional gas supply have created a high degree of uncertainty about future gas demand and the direction of gas prices.

This Gas Markets Long Term Outlook report forecasts future pricing, based on deep analysis of gas supply and demand fundamentals. Additionally, it addresses complex questions on gas flows, identifies future opportunities and informs fuel purchasing strategies.

Participants and investors can use this long term outlook report to understand gas markets and assess the impact of global gas dynamics and key market drivers.

Wood Mackenzie provides detailed supply, demand and price forecasts based on our integrated upstream, power, coal and LNG research. Our regional gas experts are based in the markets they analyse, providing comprehensive analyses of regional and global gas markets.

If you want to understand complex gas market dynamics and plan for the future, Wood Mackenzie is the premier resource to help you gain a clear, competitive advantage.

  • Executive summary
    • Key changes and recent trends
      • A return to normal weather stimulates demand growth in 2015 however demand will be relatively flat over the mid-term before declining in the long-term
      • Production growth continues through 2016 but delays and postponements hamper growth thereafter
      • Economics of coal to gas switching in the UK underpins European spot prices, providing a soft floor around US$6.5/mmbtu
    • Links to related reports
  • Demand
    • Power
    • Non-power demand
    • Residential
    • Commercial
    • Industrial
    • Transport and Losses
  • Supply
    • Production growth continues to 2016…
    • ...but delays and postponements hamper sustained increased in offshore production
    • Despite government support shale gas exploration has been delayed and we have downgraded our forecast
  • Infrastructure
    • Gas infrastructure
    • LNG infrastructure
    • Pipeline infrastructure
    • Storage infrastructure
  • Contracts
    • Piped imports: historical flows and contracts
      • Recent trends
      • Piped contracts
    • LNG imports: historical flows and contracts
      • Recent trends
      • LNG contracts
    • Gas exports: historical flows and contracts
      • Recent trends
      • Export contracts
  • Supply-demand balances
  • Costs
    • Tariffs for transportation
      • Uniform network code and charges
      • Capacity charges
      • Commodity charges
      • Storage access
  • Prices
    • NBP gas price development
    • Trading at NBP

In this report there are 19 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • UK gas price forecast
    • Gas flows into the UK
  • Demand
    • Gas demand by sector 2005 to 2035
  • Supply
    • Gas production profile - 2010 to 2035
  • Infrastructure
    • Key infrastructure
    • Import capacity
    • Export capacity
    • LNG regasification
  • Contracts
    • Historical piped imports
    • UK contracted piped imports
    • Contracts: Image 3
    • Historical LNG imports
    • UK contracted LNG imports
    • Historical piped exports
    • UK contracted piped exports
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Supply demand gap
    • Gas flows into the UK
  • Costs
    • Long run delivered costs of gas to the UK
  • Prices
    • Annual gas prices (real 2015)
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