Commodity Market Report

United Kingdom gas markets long-term outlook H1 2015

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20 August 2015

United Kingdom gas markets long-term outlook H1 2015

Report summary

Coal to gas switching supported gas demand in 2014 however gas demand still fell by 8% as a result of unusually mild temperatures. As weather return to normal levels in 2015, demand will grow 5.7% year-on-year and recover to normal levels. Demand growth however is not expected to be sustained, as energy efficiency measures increasingly kick in and offset any upside from rising GDP, population growth and increasing disposable income. 

Table of contents

    • Key changes and recent trends
      • A return to normal weather stimulates demand growth in 2015 however demand will be relatively flat over the mid-term before declining in the long-term
      • Production growth continues through 2016 but delays and postponements hamper growth thereafter
      • Economics of coal to gas switching in the UK underpins European spot prices, providing a soft floor around US$6.5/mmbtu
    • Links to related reports
    • Power
    • Non-power demand
    • Residential
    • Commercial
    • Industrial
    • Transport and Losses
    • Production growth continues to 2016
    • ...but delays and postponements hamper sustained increased in offshore production
    • Despite government support shale gas exploration has been delayed and we have downgraded our forecast
    • Gas infrastructure
    • LNG infrastructure
    • Pipeline infrastructure
    • Storage infrastructure
    • Piped imports: historical flows and contracts
      • Recent trends
      • Piped contracts
    • LNG imports: historical flows and contracts
      • Recent trends
      • LNG contracts
    • Gas exports: historical flows and contracts
      • Recent trends
      • Export contracts
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Tariffs for transportation
      • Uniform network code and charges
      • Capacity charges
      • Commodity charges
      • Storage access
    • NBP gas price development
    • Trading at NBP

Tables and charts

This report includes 19 images and tables including:

  • Gas demand by sector 2005 to 2035
  • Key infrastructure
  • Import capacity
  • Export capacity
  • Supply demand gap
  • Gas flows into the UK
  • Long run delivered costs of gas to the UK
  • UK gas price forecast
  • Gas flows into the UK
  • Gas production profile - 2010 to 2035
  • LNG regasification
  • Historical piped imports
  • UK contracted piped imports
  • Contracts: Image 3
  • Historical LNG imports
  • UK contracted LNG imports
  • Historical piped exports
  • UK contracted piped exports
  • Annual gas prices (real 2015)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    United Kingdom gas markets long-term outlook H1 2015

    PDF 959.16 KB

  • Document

    United Kingdom gas markets long-term outlook H1 2015

    ZIP 1.12 MB

  • Document

    United Kingdom gas H1 2015.xls

    XLS 839.50 KB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 109.50 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 115.76 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 88.66 KB

  • Document

    Infrastructure

    PDF 663.74 KB

  • Document

    Contracts

    PDF 119.15 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 103.54 KB

  • Document

    Costs

    PDF 111.81 KB

  • Document

    Prices

    PDF 107.94 KB

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