Commodity Market Report
United Kingdom gas markets long-term outlook H1 2015
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Coal to gas switching supported gas demand in 2014 however gas demand still fell by 8% as a result of unusually mild temperatures. As weather return to normal levels in 2015, demand will grow 5.7% year-on-year and recover to normal levels. Demand growth however is not expected to be sustained, as energy efficiency measures increasingly kick in and offset any upside from rising GDP, population growth and increasing disposable income.
Table of contents
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Executive summary
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Key changes and recent trends
- A return to normal weather stimulates demand growth in 2015 however demand will be relatively flat over the mid-term before declining in the long-term
- Production growth continues through 2016 but delays and postponements hamper growth thereafter
- Economics of coal to gas switching in the UK underpins European spot prices, providing a soft floor around US$6.5/mmbtu
- Links to related reports
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Key changes and recent trends
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Demand
- Power
- Non-power demand
- Residential
- Commercial
- Industrial
- Transport and Losses
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Supply
- Production growth continues to 2016
- ...but delays and postponements hamper sustained increased in offshore production
- Despite government support shale gas exploration has been delayed and we have downgraded our forecast
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Infrastructure
- Gas infrastructure
- LNG infrastructure
- Pipeline infrastructure
- Storage infrastructure
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Contracts
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Piped imports: historical flows and contracts
- Recent trends
- Piped contracts
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LNG imports: historical flows and contracts
- Recent trends
- LNG contracts
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Gas exports: historical flows and contracts
- Recent trends
- Export contracts
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Piped imports: historical flows and contracts
- Supply-demand balances
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Costs
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Tariffs for transportation
- Uniform network code and charges
- Capacity charges
- Commodity charges
- Storage access
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Tariffs for transportation
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Prices
- NBP gas price development
- Trading at NBP
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
- Gas demand by sector 2005 to 2035
- Key infrastructure
- Import capacity
- Export capacity
- Supply demand gap
- Gas flows into the UK
- Long run delivered costs of gas to the UK
- UK gas price forecast
- Gas flows into the UK
- Gas production profile - 2010 to 2035
- LNG regasification
- Historical piped imports
- 7 more item(s)...
What's included
This report contains:
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