What Round 1 and spending cuts mean for Mexican gas

Mexico's energy reform opened the upstream sector to private investment for the first time since 1938. In July 2015 the first auctions were held, and with three of four phases of the Round 1 auctions complete, we now have visibility on the impact reform could have on gas production. The fourth phase focuses on deepwater and will be held in December. This phase could have the greatest potential to increase gas production, but due to long lead times, bidding will not influence the market until 2025. The crash in oil prices forced Pemex to cut 2016 spending by US$5.5 bn. New low-cost US imports and debottlenecking pipelines mean Pemex can cut investment in gas-prone areas with a lower risk of shortages. As part of the energy reform, Pemex is supposed to be run more like a private company, and as a result, less profitable assets can have their funding cut more easily. As a result, non-associated gas assets may be among early cuts.