Why have we lowered our China gas production outlook? Report

Insight 16 August 2019

Get this report*

$950

You can pay by card or invoice

Share link

First name
Last name
Job Title
Company
Email
Telephone

Country

Message

Consent

Please keep me informed about Wood Mackenzie products, services and events.

Submit Category

For details on how your data is used and stored, see our Privacy Notice.

- FAQs about online orders
- Find out more about subscriptions

*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below

Report summary

In our H1 2019 gas update, we have reduced our China gas production outlook, which provokes a greater need for imports in the long term. This is despite a more modest rate of demand growth than in our previous forecast. The downgrade is not across the board. In fact, we are more optimistic on conventional and tight gas production than before. But the decrease in coal bed methane and shale gas in our forecast outweighs the increase in our production outlook for more established resources. Chinese indigenous production will drive China's growing appetite for LNG, and hence influence global gas spot prices too. The outlook for domestic production is dynamic as new gas resources struggle for growth and legacy supply sources prosper. The global gas market needs to keep as keen an eye on China supply as it does on demand.

Executive summary
Introduction
Conventional supply
- Increased investment drives higher conventional gas output
Unconventional supply
- Tight gas will underpin China’s unconventional gas output
- CBM and CMM progress remains challenging
- Synthetic natural gas (coal-to-gas) remains a minor contributor
- Shale gas facing technical and commercial challenges
Risks to this forecast