Insight
Why Henry Hub mispricing will shake Brazil's 2026 power capacity auction
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Report summary
Brazil's 2026 power capacity auction: Three strategic dimensions that will determine success The structure of the March 2026 capacity auction rewards operational flexibility over thermal efficiency, favours certain indexation strategies over others and creates advantages for specific project configurations—but the interactions between these dimensions are complex. With EPE's pricing benchmarks diverging from market forecasts and approximately 9 GW of existing capacity competing against supply-chain-constrained new builds, generators need to understand which strategic levers matter most and how different player types should approach their bids.
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