Why Nord Stream 2 could cost US gas producers US$5 bln

The Henry Hub price is at a 25-year record low. But the forward curve is in steep contango, supported by expectations of limited associated gas supply and full utilisation of US LNG. Full utilisation of US LNG will depend on how the ongoing global gas oversupply will evolve. But much of it will also depend upon the commissioning of Nord Stream 2, a new Russian pipeline due to be commissioned in early 2021. Access to the new pipeline would incentivise Gazprom to export more and facilitate a repeat of the US LNG under-utilisation we are experiencing this summer. The US Senate has in the past sought to impose sanctions on Nord Stream 2 and will be voting soon on whether further sanctions should be applied. If the bill is passed by both houses of Congress and signed into law by the president, it could prevent the project from being completed. There is a lot at stake for the US gas market when the US Senate will vote on further sanctions.