A market of out balance: LNG outlook to 2020

The market looks increasingly oversupplied in the near term with 62 Mt of additional supplies coming online between 2016 to 2018. While Asia is expected to add 27 Mt of demand, Europe will need to digest the remaining supplies, putting pressure on prices. However, the ability of Europe to absorb the additional LNG depends on Russia's piped line strategy. There are risks to our forecast. Supply risk remains in the form of start-up delays especially for the Australian projects. For demand, nuclear restarts, changing energy policies as well as infrastructure constraints can adversely change our forecast.