Name: Decision to Lift: factors shaping US LNG offtake
Brand: Wood Mackenzie
SKU: 65563
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Author: Wood Mackenzie

Insight 26 April 2017

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            <h3 class="mega store_featured_content_extrabold store_font_black">Report summary</h3>
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                <div>
US LNG exports have accelerated over the past year. Capacity at Sabine Pass Phases 1 & 2 will reach 2.5 bcfd (18 mmtpa) by mid-2017, and attention is now shifting to the buyers and their offtake decisions. The short-term outlook raises uncertainties around capacity utilisation. The LNG market is oversupplied in the short-term, raising questions around utilisation. For the project's key customers—Shell, GNF, KOGAS, GAIL, Total and Cheniere—we assess their cost structures and portfolio balances, market dynamics and other factors likely to shape decision-making. This will be important to understand as other US facilities come online and more buyers are faced with similar choices in the years ahead.</div>
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                    <h3 class="alpha push-half--bottom">Table of contents</h3>

<li class="list__item-toggle">
        <a href="#17ca019f-c932-42c7-8428-28dc2036fbd1" class="js-toggle-local list__link-toggle dark-link font-semibold" role="button" aria-controls="17ca019f-c932-42c7-8428-28dc2036fbd1" aria-expanded="false">
            Four buyers hold 90% of capacity at Trains 1-4
        </a>
        <ul id="17ca019f-c932-42c7-8428-28dc2036fbd1" class="panel-toggle push-half--left push-half--bottom">
                <li class="push-quarter--bottom">
        Shell has more than a third of Phase 1 & 2 capacity
    </li>

</ul>
    </li>

<li class="list__item-toggle">
        <a href="#d0916029-a014-446b-a6d0-d90256f90568" class="js-toggle-local list__link-toggle dark-link font-semibold" role="button" aria-controls="d0916029-a014-446b-a6d0-d90256f90568" aria-expanded="false">
            Sabine Pass offtakers are over-contracted in the short-term
        </a>
        <ul id="d0916029-a014-446b-a6d0-d90256f90568" class="panel-toggle push-half--left push-half--bottom">
                <li class="push-quarter--bottom">
        Cash costs of US LNG will be lower than long-term oil-indexed contracts
    </li>

</ul>
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<li class="list__item-toggle">
        <a href="#76fb111d-5944-4a53-a345-39d208afa885" class="js-toggle-local list__link-toggle dark-link font-semibold" role="button" aria-controls="76fb111d-5944-4a53-a345-39d208afa885" aria-expanded="false">
            Cash costs of supplying into Europe
        </a>
        <ul id="76fb111d-5944-4a53-a345-39d208afa885" class="panel-toggle push-half--left push-half--bottom">
                <li class="push-quarter--bottom">
        FOB costs and TOP terms
    </li>
    <li class="push-quarter--bottom">
        Shipping costs
    </li>
    <li class="push-quarter--bottom">
        Portfolio optimisation
    </li>
    <li class="push-quarter--bottom">
        Regas & market entry costs
    </li>

</ul>
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        <a href="#a2ff18b8-6c5a-4a6b-ab2f-ebf2638cf364" class="js-toggle-local list__link-toggle dark-link font-semibold" role="button" aria-controls="a2ff18b8-6c5a-4a6b-ab2f-ebf2638cf364" aria-expanded="false">
            Volumes at risk in the short term
        </a>
        <ul id="a2ff18b8-6c5a-4a6b-ab2f-ebf2638cf364" class="panel-toggle push-half--left push-half--bottom">
                <li class="push-quarter--bottom">
        Q2/Q3 2018 could 'stress test' the economics of US LNG
    </li>
    <li class="push-quarter--bottom">
        US LNG could flow even at negative cash margins
    </li>
    <li class="push-quarter--bottom">
        Cumulative impact
    </li>

</ul>
    </li>

</ul>

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<h3 class="alpha push-half--bottom">Tables and charts</h3>

<p class="push-half--bottom">This report includes the following images and tables:</p>

<ul class="list list--bullets">
        <li class="list__item push-quarter--bottom">Sabine Pass – contracted capacity by offtaker (2016 – 2018)</li><li class="list__item push-quarter--bottom">Offtaker Global Portfolio Balances and Costs (2018)</li><li class="list__item push-quarter--bottom">Cash costs of supply to northwest Europe: premium to Henry Hub*</li><li class="list__item push-quarter--bottom">Range of cash costs of US LNG to Europe (premium to Henry Hub) vs forecast NPB – Henry Hub differential*</li>
    </ul>

</div>

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<h3 class="alpha push-half--bottom ">What's included</h3>
<p class="push-half--bottom ">This report contains:</p>
<ul class="list"><li class="list__item-icon push-half--bottom"><svg class="list__image-icon" width="13.9" height="17.2" viewBox="0 0 13.9 17.2"><title>Document</title><g fill="#232323"><path d="M13.8 3.5L10.3.2c-.1-.2-.2-.2-.3-.2H1.5C.7 0 0 .7 0 1.5v14.2c0 .8.7 1.5 1.5 1.5h10.9c.8 0 1.5-.7 1.5-1.6V3.8c0-.1 0-.2-.1-.3zm-3.4-1.8l1.7 1.6h-1.7V1.7zm2 14.4H1.5c-.2 0-.5-.2-.5-.5V1.5c0-.2.3-.5.5-.5h7.8v2.9c0 .2.2.5.5.5h3.1v11.3c0 .2-.2.4-.5.4z"></path><path d="M11.1 6.3H3.7c-.2 0-.5.2-.5.5s.2.5.5.5H11c.3 0 .6-.2.6-.5s-.3-.5-.5-.5zM11.1 12.6H3.7c-.2 0-.5.2-.5.5 0 .2.2.5.5.5H11c.3 0 .6-.2.6-.5-.1-.3-.3-.5-.5-.5zM3.7 10.4H11c.3 0 .6-.2.5-.5 0-.2-.2-.5-.5-.5H3.6c-.2 0-.5.2-.5.5 0 .2.2.5.6.5z"></path></g></svg>
<p class="font-regular" >Decision to Lift: factors shaping US LNG offtake</p>
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