Global LNG supply tracker Q3 2017: legacy production outperforms
New projects in the US and Australia boosted LNG output in the first half of 2017. But the surprise came from legacy Atlantic producers where performance improved significantly. This is set to continue in 2018. New fields will be commissioned in Trinidad, Oman, Angola and Egypt, boosting production by more than 5 Mt in 2018. Global LNG output will surge to 324 Mt (+10%) in 2018. Signals are positive for new trains to start producing close to schedule, sowing the seeds for strong production through winter 2017-18. However, we are more cautious on delivery of further projects through 2018, which are already subject to some delays. We expect LNG over-capacity to exacerbate in 2019. US offtakers will start turning to the European market on a greater scale. We expect some curtailment of output in response to lower prices, especially in the summer of 2019.