Japan 2019 LNG survey: expectations for new supply, contracts and arbitrations Report

Insight 08 July 2019

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Report summary

Wood Mackenzie recently hosted its annual LNG forum in Tokyo on 26th June 2019. There were over 80 attendees, from a diverse group of companies including utilities, trading companies, EPC contractors and upstream companies developing LNG projects. As is traditional, we asked the audience a series of questions related to the LNG industry. This year, we explored audience attitudes to the current over-supplied market, including expectations of how low prices will go and the role of Europe in rebalancing the market. We also addressed which Asian markets look most promising for demand growth. In terms of new LNG supply, we asked what the audience want from US projects, their preferred sources of pre-FID LNG supply and how big they think this supply wave will be. Finally, we asked them about their preferences in long-term contract terms and whether they expect Asian buyers to instigate price arbitrations if they can’t resolve price reviews via commercial negotiations.

Introduction
Short-term market
- 1. How low will Asian spot prices reach over the next three years?
- 2. In 2018 Europe imported 49 million tonnes of LNG. How much do you think the region will import in 2020?
Asian demand
3. In which three South and South East Asian markets will LNG demand grow fastest from now to 2030?
New LNG supply
4. What will be the main driver of growth in pre-FID US exports?
Contract trends
7. Which is your top priority in LNG contract negotiations?

Tables and charts

This report includes 8 images and tables including:

Q3: In which 3 markets will LNG demand grow fastest from now to 2030?
Q4: What will be the main driver of growth in pre-FID US exports?
Q5: Preferred source of pre-FID LNG?

Q6: Additional LNG projects and capacity to take FID over the next 18 months?
Q7. Top priority in LNG contract negotiations?
Q8: how many APAC arbitrations in next 3 years?
Q1: How low will Asian spot prices reach over the next 3 years?
Q2: In 2018 Europe imported 49 million tonnes of LNG. How much do you think the region will import in 2020?