Insight

LNG primed for $200 billion capex boom - will it drive cost inflation?

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24 April 2019

LNG primed for $200 billion capex boom - will it drive cost inflation?

Report summary

The LNG boom is back. In our base case, over the next two years almost 90 mmtpa of LNG is expected to take Final Investment Decision (FID) and start construction. The boom will result in capital expenditure of $200 billion on LNG facilities and related upstream spend. Will the industry suffer the same enormous cost inflation as the previous boom? We don't think so. Our insight looks at how the risks for cost inflation are lower this time. A greater spread in project location is coupled with muted expenditure in the wider oil and gas industry. Developers and EPC contractors are looking to improved construction methods, such as the use of modularisation. Yet, the LNG industry is notorious for cost overruns and schedule delays. Furthermore, in our high case a further 70 mmtpa of projects could take FID in the next three years. Can LNG EPC contractors cope with this workload? Will tightness in the labour market and upstream supply chain lead to cost inflation?

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Boom time is coming in the LNG business again
  • Why LNG projects have not delivered in the past
  • What could be different this time?
    • Rigs and subsea
    • Facilities and fabrication
  • Why are LNG EPC companies in trouble?
  • Doesn’t this mean that EPC costs will have to rise?
  • Other companies and sectors to watch
  • Conclusion

Tables and charts

This report includes 7 images and tables including:

  • Table 1 - Projects under construction and set to take FID
  • Chart 1: Annual LNG capex - history and forecast (base and high case)
  • Chart 2: FIDs - capacity sanctioned per year (base and high case)
  • Chart 3: Capex overruns on greenfield and brownfield LNG projects
  • Chart 4: Steel prices - history and forecast
  • Chart 5: Global upstream spend and Brent oil price
  • Chart 6: Number of trains under construction and EPC availability

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    LNG primed for $200 billion capex boom - will it drive cost inflation?

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