LNG short-term outlook: October 2022

Since September, European TTF month-ahead prices have fallen from above $60 to around $30 per mmbtu – and even more sharply on the day-ahead. The market is glutted with gas: storage levels are at a record high while mild weather is inhibiting gas demand. Even a cold winter scenario, combined with lower Russian flows, doesn’t look as alarming as it did even last month. We expect European hub price spreads to TTF to continue until bottlenecks loosen and Asian LNG prices to follow a similar dynamic.