New LNG Supply - how will it be affected by changing investment priorities

Delivered at our Global Energy Summit – Focus Week: Gas & LNG, on 5 October 2021, this presentation focuses on the dilemmas faced by investors in new LNG supply, given the energy transition. Growth from under-construction supply and bullish messages about FID on new trains from developers in Russia, Qatar and the US, means there is only limited demand for new supply before 2030. For IOC developers with an eye on the energy transition this is creating investment dilemmas. We think some of them will only support projects if they have fast payback periods or they are able to limit their capital exposure. Buyers of LNG are facing challenges too. The recent price spike, means there could be buoyant demand for contracts of five years or less. But sellers who are developing new supply are only incentivised to sign contracts if they can get a longer deal which they can use to underpin new supply. LNG contract price rises seem inevitable but for which type of contracts and for how long?