Insight
China economic focus November 2021: potential disruption ahead
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
We forecast the Chinese economy to slow down from 8.1% GDP growth in 2021 to 5.4% in 2022. A few disruptions to economic activity will contribute to the slower growth. Tightening of pollution controls for the Winter Olympics will impact both pollution-intensive industries and on-road logistics in northern provinces. Reoccurring Covid lockdowns and China’s zero tolerance of new cases will depress mobility and consumption. The pressure of the “dual controls” energy policy will return towards the end of coming quarters and potentially bring new rounds of power rationing.
Table of contents
- Highlights
- Pollution controls tighten for the Winter Olympics
- Zero-tolerance response to new Covid cases
- The long-lasting pressure of dual controls
- Appendix
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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Highway traffic falls after Covid outbreaksDual controls tracking table for H1 2021Wood Mackenzie's proprietary China data
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Manufacturing PMIIP and retail salesTradeInflationPropertyInvestmentMoney supply (M2)Required reserve ratio
What's included
This report contains:
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