Insight
China economic focus October 2023: a low case for 2024
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
China's GDP growth could slow to 3.9% in 2024, according to our analysis of a low-case scenario. This scenario assumes flat property sales and new starts, sluggish private investment and weak consumer confidence. The property recession and energy transition generate varied momentum for metals in the low case. Steel demand could be impacted the most, while the additional downward pressure on copper and battery raw materials could be muted. Energy markets face varying paths driven by economic and policy factors. Demand for coal is likely to remain robust while power, oil and gas demand are hit. Investment in renewable power will continue to be strong.
Table of contents
- Executive summary
- What factors could drag China off course in 2024?
- Mixed momentum for metals
- Disparate paths for energy markets during the economic slowdown
- Appendix
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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Industrial production recovered since JuneGDP growth for 2024: base case vs. low casePrivate investment in energy transition vs. traditional industry, Jan-Sep
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Consumer confidence remains bearishWood Mackenzie's proprietary China dataManufacturing PMIIndustrial production and retail salesTradeInflationPropertyInvestmentMoney supply (M2)
- 1 more item(s)...
What's included
This report contains:
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