With the Chinese New Year holiday behind us we are looking ahead to what the year of the rooster could have in store for China's commodity markets. Undoubtedly maintaining stability in the run up to this year's 19th Communist Party Congress is the government s top priority and there will be no distractions from President Xi s efforts to consolidate his political power. More broadly while we believe China can meet its official GDP target this year we don t agree with the consensus view of stable commodity market development as we see multiple challenges ahead. In this insight we consider five factors that could surprise China's commodity market. We intend to look closely at each of these topics individually and share our view of their impact on commodity markets through a series of reports briefing sessions and follow up insights through the year.