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China's commodity markets: 5 things to look for in 2017

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17 February 2017

China's commodity markets: 5 things to look for in 2017

Report summary

With the Chinese New Year holiday behind us, we are looking ahead to what the year of the rooster could have in store for China's commodity markets. Undoubtedly, maintaining stability in the run-up to this year's 19th Communist Party Congress is the government’s top priority, and there will be no distractions from President Xi’s efforts to consolidate his political power. More broadly, while we believe China can meet its official GDP target this year, we don’t agree with the consensus view of stable commodity market development as we see multiple challenges ahead. In this insight, we consider five factors that could surprise China's commodity market. We intend to look closely at each of these topics individually and share our view of their impact on commodity markets through a series of reports, briefing sessions and follow-up insights through the year.

Table of contents

  • Introduction
  • Macro economy: where will the money come from?
  • Capacity rationalisation: running out of 'low-hanging fruit'
  • Energy market reforms: the art of balancing
  • Environmental policies: moving the needle
  • Trump administration: some threats, but more opportunities

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