Conflict scenario: Iran War sparks a global race for energy security

This conflict scenario models a potential outcome where sustained geopolitical instability, whether in the Middle East or elsewhere, compels a radical policy pivot away from import-dependent energy systems. It represents a radical departure from our base case outlook, which assumes energy transition occurs within stable international trade frameworks. Our integrated modelling examines a world where security concerns override cost optimisation, with major economies halving oil and gas import exposure by 2050 through electrification, nuclear and extended coal use, and assessing the feasibility and consequences of this fundamental restructuring.