Economic focus: Will China's housing revival boost GDP growth?
Get this report
$950
You can pay by card or invoice
Report summary
Looser credit and supportive demand measures are breathing life into China's property market once more. In the first four months of 2016, housing sales rose by 39%. Similarly, residential construction starts expanded 18% year-on-year in the same period. Can the nascent recovery in China's property market be sustained in the longer run? More importantly, how does the recent uptick in the property market change our China construction and GDP outlooks? In this Insight we present our outlook on China's total construction and explain why it has already peaked. We also highlight the key reasons for maintaining our China GDP forecast of 6.4% this year and 6.2% in 2017 despite the recent revival in the property market. Other recent research: Ultra-loose monetary policy: friend or foe? Brexit: risks for the UK economy and energy sector
Table of contents
- Policy does the trick, for now
- A tale of two Chinas
- Residential construction will still decline despite upgrade
- China construction has peaked
- China GDP forecast unchanged as broader downside risks remain
- Economic indicators
Tables and charts
This report includes 22 images and tables including:
- Recovery in China's property market
- But inventory levels remain high in non-tier 1 markets
- Construction outlook
- Home-buying population
- Breakdown of China's total construction
- China's GDP outlook
- USA Purchasing Managers' Indices
- Eurozone Purchasing Managers' Indices
- Japan Purchasing Managers' Indices
- China Purchasing Managers' Indices
- Industrial production
- Industrial production
- Consumer Sentiment Index (3-month moving avg.)
- Consumer Sentiment Index (3-month moving avg.)
- 10-year government bond yields (%)
- 10-year government bond yields (%)
- Consumer Price Index (annual % change)
- Consumer Price Index (annual % change)
- Exchange Rate Indices vs US$ (Jan 2012 = 100)
- Exchange Rate Indices vs US$ (Jan 2012 = 100)
- Oil and gas prices
- Copper and freight prices
What's included
This report contains:
Other reports you may be interested in
01 November 2016
Economic focus: Latin America economic climate improving
Economic focus: Latin America economic climate improving
The end of the economic slump in Latin America is in sight, but recovery will be slow unless new growth drivers can be found.
$95009 November 2015
Japan economic outlook Q4 2015
Japan economic outlook Q4 2015
We assess the outlook for the economy of Japan to 2035, highlighting key risks.
$1,50011 April 2018
EMEARC economic outlook H1 2018: full steam ahead or running out of steam?
EMEARC economic outlook H1 2018: full steam ahead or running out of steam?
Europe is on a good run of economic growth. How long can it last? And what impact will demographics and automation have on growth to 2040?
$950
