Insight
Economic focus: Will China's housing revival boost GDP growth?
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Looser credit and supportive demand measures are breathing life into China's property market once more. In the first four months of 2016, housing sales rose by 39%. Similarly, residential construction starts expanded 18% year-on-year in the same period. Can the nascent recovery in China's property market be sustained in the longer run? More importantly, how does the recent uptick in the property market change our China construction and GDP outlooks? In this Insight we present our outlook on China's total construction and explain why it has already peaked. We also highlight the key reasons for maintaining our China GDP forecast of 6.4% this year and 6.2% in 2017 despite the recent revival in the property market. Other recent research: Ultra-loose monetary policy: friend or foe? Brexit: risks for the UK economy and energy sector
Table of contents
- Policy does the trick, for now
- A tale of two Chinas
- Residential construction will still decline despite upgrade
- China construction has peaked
- China GDP forecast unchanged as broader downside risks remain
- Economic indicators
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
-
Recovery in China's property marketBut inventory levels remain high in non-tier 1 marketsConstruction outlook
-
Home-buying populationBreakdown of China's total constructionChina's GDP outlookUSA Purchasing Managers' IndicesEurozone Purchasing Managers' IndicesJapan Purchasing Managers' IndicesChina Purchasing Managers' IndicesIndustrial productionIndustrial production
- 10 more item(s)...
What's included
This report contains:
Other reports you may be interested in
Insight
Global economic outlook Q1 2026: pushed and pulled
Economic headwinds set to pull global growth lower in 2026
$1,150
Insight
Global economic outlook Q2 2026: global economy faces historic energy shock
A prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz is now the greatest single risk to the global economy.
$1,150
Insight
China economic focus April 2026: navigating the energy crisis
The Middle East conflict poses downside risks to the Chinese economy despite the country’s significant cushions.
$1,150
