Economic focus: Will China's housing revival boost GDP growth? Report

Insight 31 May 2016

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Report summary

Looser credit and supportive demand measures are breathing life into China's property market once more. In the first four months of 2016, housing sales rose by 39%. Similarly, residential construction starts expanded 18% year-on-year in the same period. Can the nascent recovery in China's property market be sustained in the longer run? More importantly, how does the recent uptick in the property market change our China construction and GDP outlooks? In this Insight we present our outlook on China's total construction and explain why it has already peaked. We also highlight the key reasons for maintaining our China GDP forecast of 6.4% this year and 6.2% in 2017 despite the recent revival in the property market. Other recent research: Ultra-loose monetary policy: friend or foe? Brexit: risks for the UK economy and energy sector