Insight
China economic focus October 2026: why exports will slow in 2027
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
In the October China economic focus, we discuss why China's export boom is likely to slow in 2027. Exports rose 16.4% in the first nine months of 2026, led by AI hardware and EVs, but we expect growth to slow to low single digits next year. Beijing is scaling back export tax rebates under international pressure, and the US–China truce runs only to January. The undervalued RMB is likely to keep appreciating, eroding the price advantage of volume-driven exports. AI-hardware export gains have come from prices, not volumes, and unit-value growth is already slowing.
Table of contents
- Executive summary
- External pressure on export support mounts
- The RMB has further to rise
- AI-hardware inflation cools
- Outlook
- Appendix
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
-
China’s key economic indicatorsRMB CFETS currency basket indexChina AI hardware and EV exports: value vs volume
-
Wood Mackenzie's proprietary China dataManufacturing PMIIndustrial production and retail salesTradeInflationPropertyInvestmentMoney supply (M2)Required reserve ratio
What's included
This report contains:
Other reports you may be interested in
Insight
China economic focus September 2026: a strategic pause in investment
The government chooses to prioritise debt resolution and energy security over new projects.
$1,150
Insight
China economic focus June 2026: the slowdown deepens
Falling transport fuel demand reveals a slowdown in China's economy since April, caused by weak domestic demand and high energy prices.
$1,150
Insight
China economic focus May 2026: the Middle East war scenarios
We assess the impact of the energy crisis on China’s economy based on the assumed duration of the Middle East conflict.
$1,150
