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Global economy Q3 2015: China slump, US energy bust, and Grexit point to 2018 downturn?

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16 September 2015

Global economy Q3 2015: China slump, US energy bust, and Grexit point to 2018 downturn?

Report summary

The global economy remains fragile. For several years now, better times have always been 'just around the corner'. This optimism has consistently disappointed, so let's be realistic. Structural growth drivers in the world's major developed economies are lacking and show few signs of imminent improvement. US economic strength over the past few years has been driven by an energy boom that is starting to fade. China's rebalancing will inevitably result in slower growth as the economy comes to terms with reduced construction and investment. And in emerging markets, especially the commodity producers, growth will not return to the highs enjoyed over the past decade due to a slow commodity price recovery. If that was not enough, we now think Grexit is inevitable. We forecast several more years of lacklustre global GDP growth followed by a global economic slowdown in 2018. The cycle of boom and bust may have just skipped the boom. 

Table of contents

  • USA: energy bust to cause recession?
  • China: short term gain leads to long term pain?
  • Emerging markets: commodity crash bites hard. No relief in sight.
  • Europe: temporary growth drivers. Grexit in 2018.
  • Conclusion

Tables and charts

This report includes 12 images and tables including:

  • USD Trade weighted index
  • US trade balance (petrol and non-petrol goods)
  • USA Lower 48 Rig Count
  • Oil and Condensate Production
  • US Lower 48 Oil and Gas Capex
  • Gross State Product
  • Wood Mackenzie's China Activity Index vs official GDP
  • China building floor space completed
  • GDP growth in emerging markets
  • Government budget balance as % of GDP
  • Change in Eurozone GDP since 2007
  • Sovereign debt as % of GDP

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global economy Q3 2015: China slump, US energy bust, and Grexit point to 2018 downturn?

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