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Global economy Q3 2015: China slump, US energy bust, and Grexit point to 2018 downturn?


Global economy Q3 2015: China slump, US energy bust, and Grexit point to 2018 downturn?

Report summary

The global economy remains fragile. For several years now, better times have always been 'just around the corner'. This optimism has consistently disappointed, so let's be realistic. Structural growth drivers in the world's major developed economies are lacking and show few signs of imminent improvement. US economic strength over the past few years has been driven by an energy boom that is starting to fade. China's rebalancing will inevitably result in slower growth as the economy comes to terms with reduced construction and investment. And in emerging markets, especially the commodity producers, growth will not return to the highs enjoyed over the past decade due to a slow commodity price recovery. If that was not enough, we now think Grexit is inevitable. We forecast several more years of lacklustre global GDP growth followed by a global economic slowdown in 2018. The cycle of boom and bust may have just skipped the boom. 

What's included?

This report includes 1 file(s)

  • Global economy Q3 2015: China slump, US energy bust, and Grexit point to 2018 downturn? PDF - 504.29 KB 8 Pages, 0 Tables, 13 Figures

Description

This Macroeconomics and Global Trends Insight report presents our research on this key topic, and draws out the implications for economies and commodity markets.

This report delivers a clear understanding of our unique global economic outlook and identify risks and uncertainties to watch out for.

Wood Mackenzie's global trends and macroeconomic analysis underpins all our commodity demand analysis, ensuring we continually deliver an integrated and consistent view.

Our comprehensive understanding of commodity markets gives us a unique insight into the pace of global development and the risks associated with it.

  • USA: energy bust to cause recession?
  • China: short term gain leads to long term pain?
  • Emerging markets: commodity crash bites hard. No relief in sight.
  • Europe: temporary growth drivers. Grexit in 2018.
  • Conclusion

In this report there are 13 tables or charts, including:

  • USA: energy bust to cause recession?
    • USD Trade weighted index
    • US trade balance (petrol and non-petrol goods)
    • USA Lower 48 Rig Count
    • Oil and Condensate Production
    • US Lower 48 Oil and Gas Capex
    • Gross State Product
  • China: short term gain leads to long term pain?
    • Wood Mackenzie's China Activity Index vs official GDP
    • China building floor space completed
  • Emerging markets: commodity crash bites hard. No relief in sight.
    • GDP growth in emerging markets
    • Government budget balance as % of GDP
  • Europe: temporary growth drivers. Grexit in 2018.
    • Change in Eurozone GDP since 2007
    • Sovereign debt as % of GDP
  • Conclusion
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