Mexico braces for economic fallout of a Trump presidency

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Report summary

The Mexican economy would bear the full brunt of the incoming Donald Trump administration should the new US president act on campaign promises to tear up trade deals and force Mexico to pay for a border wall. While concrete policy has yet to materialise, Mexico could potentially pay for the wall if the US were to implement new tariffs – both on Mexican imports and US exports – or by strong arming a payment by threatening to cut off dollar remittances. Tariffs on US exports of natural gas or gasoline could be placed on the negotiating table, but their scale and ultimate implementation may be limited by push back from US firms. Finally Trump’s election could fuel populism and nationalist policies south of the Rio Grande in the immediate lead-up to and the aftermath of Mexico’s July 2018 presidential elections.

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    Mexico braces for economic fallout of a Trump presidency

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Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Mexico’s economy: up against The Wall?
  • The art of the deal
  • Populism to straddle the Rio Grande?

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