Insight
Q3 2016 Global economy: cyclical slowdown, Brexit, commodity producer woes, China stimulus
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Wood Mackenzie forecasts weak global GDP growth over the next five years. Developed economies face structural headwinds such as ageing demographics, while emerging markets must address reforms without the cushion of high commodity prices. On top of this, cyclical factors are at play. Growth drivers – especially in the developed world – look unsustainable. Last year we thought these cyclical factors would come to a head in 2018. But, with commodity prices worse than expected, and political instability deepening, it appears that cyclical slowdown has come sooner.
Table of contents
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Cyclical slowdown
- Europe: Brexit, Grexit, Frexit, Nexit?
- Commodity producers: missed window of opportunity?
- Japan: 'Abenomics' has failed
- United States: Investment and industrial output GDP growth slump down to commodity price collapse
- China: short-term gain for long-term pain?
- Conclusion
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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Real GDP growth: bringing forward the slowdownReal GDP growth in 2017 for selected EU economiesUpcoming elections pose a risk to political stability
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Inflation coming down for some......but rising for othersCumulative change in real GDPJapanese real GDP: changes since Q1 2007US mining sector employmentNew orders for oil and gas machineryChina GDP by component (annual % growth)China fixed asset investment (annual % growth)
What's included
This report contains:
