Q3 2016 Global economy: cyclical slowdown, Brexit, commodity producer woes, China stimulus



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Report summary

Wood Mackenzie forecasts weak global GDP growth over the next five years. Developed economies face structural headwinds such as ageing demographics, while emerging markets must address reforms without the cushion of high commodity prices. On top of this, cyclical factors are at play. Growth drivers – especially in the developed world – look unsustainable. Last year we thought these cyclical factors would come to a head in 2018. But, with commodity prices worse than expected, and political instability deepening, it appears that cyclical slowdown has come sooner.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Q3 2016 Global economy: cyclical slowdown, Brexit, commodity producer woes, China stimulus

    PDF 590.11 KB

Table of contents

    • Europe: Brexit, Grexit, Frexit, Nexit?
    • Commodity producers: missed window of opportunity?
    • Japan: 'Abenomics' has failed
    • United States: Investment and industrial output GDP growth slump down to commodity price collapse
    • China: short-term gain for long-term pain?
    • Conclusion

Tables and charts

This report includes 11 images and tables including:


  • Real GDP growth: bringing forward the slowdown
  • Real GDP growth in 2017 for selected EU economies
  • Upcoming elections pose a risk to political stability
  • Inflation coming down for some...
  • ...but rising for others
  • Cumulative change in real GDP
  • Japanese real GDP: changes since Q1 2007
  • US mining sector employment
  • New orders for oil and gas machinery
  • China GDP by component (annual % growth)
  • China fixed asset investment (annual % growth)

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