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Trade wars, broken Union and China credit conundrum: risks to the global economy H1 2017

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Report summary

Three emerging risks could destabilise the global economy within the next five years. They are an escalation in trade protectionism, further fragmentation of the European Union, and a debt crisis in China. We estimate these risks could wipe between $2.2 and $3.6 trillion off global GDP by 2021. To put those figures in perspective, they are roughly equivalent to the current size of the economies of Brazil and Germany.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Q1 2017 risks to the global economy.xls

    XLS 448.50 KB

  • Document

    H1 2017 risks to the global economy.pdf

    PDF 1.15 MB

  • Document

    Trade wars, broken Union and China credit conundrum: risks to the global economy H1 2017

    ZIP 1.10 MB

Table of contents

    • Trump's tirade on trade
    • Eurozone collapse and further fracturing of the EU
    • China debt crisis
    • Conclusion

Tables and charts

This report includes 5 images and tables including:

Images

  • Global GDP in 2021: base case and scenarios
  • Global GDP in 2021: protectionism scenario
  • Real GDP index for major European economies (base case and downside scenario)
  • Global GDP in 2021: China debt crisis scenario
  • Debt in China

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