Global economic outlook Q2 2026: global economy faces historic energy shock

While an extended shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz now poses the single biggest threat to the global economy, our base case assumes a swift resolution. We expect the Middle East conflict to be short-lived, with energy transit disruptions easing shortly. Under this baseline, we forecast global GDP growth of 2.3% in 2026, accelerating to 3.0% as the recovery broadens in 2027. However, uncertain times compel consideration of divergent outcomes. We have developed three distinct scenarios that assume differing timelines for the end of the war and, crucially, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. We analyse the impact of these scenarios on the global economy.