Transport in transition: the role of fuel efficiency

Improvements in vehicle fuel efficiency are a key driver of oil demand destruction to 2030. Standards for light vehicles span multiple countries and regions, which together account for almost 75% of global gasoline sales. Light vehicle fuel efficiency improvements in Europe, the US, China, and India alone account for 2.4 million b/d of demand lost by 2030. However, our estimate of the impact of fuel efficiency improvements through time are risked since government policies and their enforcement are subject to change. In this report, we assess the impact from fuel efficiency on oil demand, including: • CAFE standards in the US – what is under review? • EU standards – how will the new targets impact demand? • China's CAFC standards – how does the new dual credit scheme affect implementation?