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US GDP growth by state: winners and losers to 2035

US GDP growth by state: winners and losers to 2035

Report summary

While resource producing states are suffering, non-resource states are enjoying robust growth – supported by low gasoline prices and improved household purchasing power. This is helping to offset poor growth in resource states.within the US varies from one state to another. States with extensive oil and gas activity are suffering from layoffs in the sector and a slump in capital spending. Could low oil prices drag these states into recession? Economic growth 

Over the longer term, state economic growth will be heavily influenced by demographics. We expect US GDP growth of around 2% per annum, but with significant regional variation. The South and West will outpace the rest of country owing to migration flows from the Northeast and Midwest. Texas and Florida in particular should benefit from inward migration.

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  • US state GDP outlook.pdf PDF - 1.70 MB


This Macroeconomics and Global Trends Insight report presents our research on this key topic, and draws out the implications for economies and commodity markets.

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  • US GDP growth by state: winners and losers to 2035
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