Insight

Aluminium smelter cutbacks: kicking the can further down the road

This report is currently unavailable

This report is currently unavailable

Get this Insight as part of a subscription

Enquire about subscriptions

Already have a subscription? Sign In

Further information

Pay by Invoice or Credit Card FAQs

Contact us

Submit your details to receive further information about this report.

  • An error has occurred while getting captcha image
For details on how your data is used and stored, see our Privacy Notice.
 

Report summary

The LME aluminium price continued its descent in August 2015 falling to a multi-year low of $1485/t mainly due to weaker demand growth expectations and relentless oversupply in China. The rapidly falling all-in-price is now cutting deeper into the cost curve forcing the industry to curtail production. Our analysis suggests that apart from the 1.2Mt curtailments from Chinese smelters in the top quartile in 2015, another 4.3Mt of Chinese production is vulnerable to temporary closures.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Aluminium smelter cutbacks: kicking the can further down the road

    PDF 539.02 KB

Table of contents

  • Executive Summary
  • Cost curve under scrutiny
  • Boom and bust
  • Producer response so far in 2015
  • China versus China
  • What's different now versus the GFC
  • Conclusion

Tables and charts

This report includes 8 images and tables including:

Tables

  • Production changes for select provinces since July 2015 (kt)

Images

  • Global 2015 C1 cash + sustaining capex cost curve and the all-in price
  • 2008 C1 Cost Curves highlighting average November – December 2008 aluminium cash prices
  • China shows higher proportion of output in the highest cost quartile
  • Aluminium smelter cutbacks: kicking the can further down the road: Image 4
  • 14.1Mt high cost production
  • Chinese semis exports
  • Primary smelting C1 cost and prices

You may be interested in

Questions about this report?

  • Europe:
    +44 131 243 4699
  • Americas:
    +1 713 470 1900
  • Asia Pacific:
    +61 2 8224 8898