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Aluminium: Things to look for in 2026
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Report summary
2026 looks set to be another volatile year for the aluminium market. Metal supply is becoming increasingly price inelastic as China reaches its 45 Mtpa capacity cap and power constraints elsewhere limit the supply response to higher prices and premiums. The start of the definitive phase of CBAM will support higher premiums as well as alter traditional trade flows. 2026 could be the start of structural shift in the aluminium industry.
Table of contents
- CBAM will be a major disruptor to the market
- Global premiums set for further uplift
- Watch out for unannounced smelter output increases.
- How low will alumina prices go?
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