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7 Pages

China aluminium smelter restarts slower than anticipated

China aluminium smelter restarts slower than anticipated

Report summary

China curtailed nearly 4.6Mt of production (excluding restarts) since January 2015. Wood Mackenzie estimates that China could potentially restart an additional 450kt production in 2016, on top of the 1.3Mt restarts that have already been announced, bringing the total to 1.8Mt or approximately 40% of total curtailments. We think that restarts in high-cost provinces such as Sichuan, Hubei and Henan are less likely and Chinese producers will focus on low-cost capacity additions, albeit at a slower pace.

Wood Mackenzie believes the price trajectory will remain subdued against the backdrop of new capacity additions and forecast the average annual LME aluminium price at US$1,588/t in 2016, US$1,672/t in 2017 and US$1,756/t in 2018.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • China aluminium smelter restarts slower than anticipated PDF - 380.16 KB 7 Pages, 1 Tables, 4 Figures
  • China aluminium restarts.xls XLS - 115.00 KB


This Metals Insight report highlights the key issues surrounding this topic, and draws out the implications for those involved.

For industry participants and advisors who want to look at the trends, risks and issues surrounding this topic, this report gives you an expert point of view to help inform your decision making.

Our analysts are based in the markets they analyse and work with high-quality proprietary data to provide consistent and reliable insight.

We provide unique in-depth analysis of the metals supply industry so you can make confident strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
  • Introduction
  • Cell life
  • A typical shutdown procedure
  • Conclusion

In this report there are 5 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
  • Introduction
  • Cell life
  • A typical shutdown procedure
    • Timeline for restarts
    • China smelter cuts and restarts
    • Global C1 cash + sustaining capital cost curve 2016
    • ROW and China primary aluminium output (Mt/a annualised)
    • China base capacity additions
  • Conclusion
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