Insight
China aluminium smelter restarts slower than anticipated
Get this report
$1,050
You can pay by card or invoice
Report summary
China curtailed nearly 4.6Mt of production (excluding restarts) since January 2015. Wood Mackenzie estimates that China could potentially restart an additional 450kt production in 2016, on top of the 1.3Mt restarts that have already been announced, bringing the total to 1.8Mt or approximately 40% of total curtailments. We think that restarts in high-cost provinces such as Sichuan, Hubei and Henan are less likely and Chinese producers will focus on low-cost capacity additions, albeit at a slower pace. Wood Mackenzie believes the price trajectory will remain subdued against the backdrop of new capacity additions and forecast the average annual LME aluminium price at US$1,588/t in 2016, US$1,672/t in 2017 and US$1,756/t in 2018.
Table of contents
- Executive summary
- Introduction
- Cell life
- A typical shutdown procedure
- Conclusion
Tables and charts
This report includes 5 images and tables including:
- Timeline for restarts
- China smelter cuts and restarts
- Global C1 cash + sustaining capital cost curve 2016
- ROW and China primary aluminium output (Mt/a annualised)
- China base capacity additions
What's included
This report contains:
Other reports you may be interested in
27 February 2019
Global aluminium long-term outlook Q4 2018
Commodity Market Report
Global aluminium long-term outlook Q4 2018
Global protectionism dominate market sentiment near-term. For now medium term market fundamentals point to elevated prices.
$6,75026 September 2018
Global aluminium long-term outlook Q3 2018
Commodity Market Report
Global aluminium long-term outlook Q3 2018
Tariffs, trade disputes and sanctions to define the aluminium market over the next few years.
$6,75020 July 2017
Illegal capacity and pollution: two threats facing the Chinese aluminium industry
Insight
Illegal capacity and pollution: two threats facing the Chinese aluminium industry
China's aluminium industry under pressure as the government assesses the trade-off between growth and grime.
$1,050
Trusted by leading organisations
