Name: China aluminium smelter restarts slower than anticipated
Brand: Wood Mackenzie
SKU: 46843
Price: 1050 USD
Availability: OnlineOnly
Author: Wood Mackenzie

Insight 14 June 2016

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China curtailed nearly 4.6Mt of production (excluding restarts) since January 2015. Wood Mackenzie estimates that China could potentially restart an additional 450kt production in 2016, on top of the 1.3Mt restarts that have already been announced, bringing the total to 1.8Mt or approximately 40% of total curtailments. We think that restarts in high-cost provinces such as Sichuan, Hubei and Henan are less likely and Chinese producers will focus on low-cost capacity additions, albeit at a slower pace. Wood Mackenzie believes the price trajectory will remain subdued against the backdrop of new capacity additions and forecast the average annual LME aluminium price at US$1,588/t in 2016, US$1,672/t in 2017 and US$1,756/t in 2018.</div>
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                    <h3 class="alpha push-half--bottom">Table of contents</h3>

<li class="list__item-toggle font-semibold">
        Executive summary
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<li class="list__item-toggle font-semibold">
        Introduction
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<li class="list__item-toggle font-semibold">
        A typical shutdown procedure
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        Conclusion
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<ul class="list list--bullets">
        <li class="list__item push-quarter--bottom">Timeline for restarts</li><li class="list__item push-quarter--bottom">China smelter cuts and restarts</li><li class="list__item push-quarter--bottom">Global C1 cash + sustaining capital cost curve 2016</li><li class="list__item push-quarter--bottom">ROW and China primary aluminium output (Mt/a annualised)</li><li class="list__item push-quarter--bottom">China base capacity additions</li>
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<p class="font-regular" >China aluminium smelter restarts slower than anticipated</p>
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<p class="font-regular" >China aluminium restarts.xls</p>
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